Eco Ahead

The Kyoto Protocol was created by the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC).  This committee created the Kyoto Protocol in an attempt to deal with Global Warming.  It was recognized that Global Warming has been a result of Greenhouse Gas emissions and the committee realized that this is an international issue.  The focus of emission reduction is on carbon dioxide, but methane, nitrous oxide, PFCs and HFCs are also taken into account.  The Kyoto Protocol was the first internationally organized climate change plan.  Since the adoption of this plan in December 1997, 166 different countries and entities have ratified the plan (Requirements, 2005).  The figure below displays each country’s stance on the Protocol.

The Protocol divides the nations of the world into two categories.  Annex 1 countries are developed nations that are able to reduce emissions, while Non Annex 1 countries are developing nations that are not yet forced to reduce emissions, though they are still encouraged to (Requirements, 2005).  The goal of Kyoto is to lower the world’s average GHG emissions, so the UNFCCC first had to decide on a reasonable world reduction rate.  The rate was then split up between all the Annex 1 countries.  Original calculations lead the committee to ask for an 8% reduction in the European Union, a 7% reduction in the U.S. and a 6% reduction in Japan (Viguier, 2003).  Since the European Union signed as one entity, they are free to allocate different reduction goals to individual members as long as their overall goal is met.
The three methods currently being used to reduce emissions are the international trading, joint implementation, and clean development mechanisms.  Emissions trading encourages countries to reduce their emissions even below their goals.  They are then allowed to sell excess emissions to other countries.  Joint implementation encourages countries to work together to develop new reduction technologies.  For example, if two countries create, develop, and share a renewable energy source, they will both receive reduction benefits.  Finally, clean development mechanisms focus on Non Annex 1 countries.  For this method, Annex 1 countries can receive credits for investing in emissions reductions within Non Annex 1 countries (Requirements, 2005).
In analyzing the effects of the Protocol economically, it should be noted that the GDPs of the European Union countries and Japan have increased despite the economic burdens of GHG reduction technologies.  Marginal Abatement Curves show that the predicted costs of carbon dioxide reductions are actually less in the United States than in the European Union or Japan (Dgoumas, 2006).

The costs in the U.S. for a 10% reduction can be estimated using this abatement curve.  If the U.S. emits approximately 5.91 billion metric tons of carbon annually, 5.91 million metric tons would need to be eliminated each year (International, 2006).  Using the predicted $65 per ton of carbon, it would cost the United States $38,415,000,000 (Dgoumas, 2006).  Though 38 billion dollars seems like a huge amount, the annual GDP of the U.S. is nearly $12 trillion; making the cost of a 10% reduction approximated 0.33% of the GDP (United States, 2006).
Based on Kyoto’s recommended 7% reduction, the U.S. would still be permitted to emit 4.14 x 10^8 metric tons of carbon per year.  This 7% reduction would lead to an eventual stabilization, or even a decrease in global warming.  As the graph shows, a strong correlation exists between temperature change and atmospheric concentrations of CO₂, so it can be expected that if CO₂ emissions are decreased, temperature change will also begin to decrease.